{"built":"2026-11-07","columns":["welfare_pct","welfare_min","welfare_max","exports_pct","partner_pct","output_pct","us_tariff_pct"],"sector_columns":["sector","output_pct","partner_pct","us_tariff_pct","partner_exports_2022_bn","output_2022_bn"],"sector_names":{"A01":"Landwirtschaft","A02":"Forstwirtschaft","A03":"Fischerei","B05":"Kohlebergbau","B06":"Erdöl- und Erdgasförderung","B07":"Erzbergbau","B08":"Steine und Erden","B09":"Dienstleistungen für den Bergbau","C10T12":"Nahrungsmittel, Getränke, Tabak","C13T15":"Textilien, Bekleidung, Leder","C16":"Holzwaren","C17_18":"Papier und Druck","C19":"Kokerei und Mineralölverarbeitung","C20":"Chemische Erzeugnisse","C21":"Pharmazeutische Erzeugnisse","C22":"Gummi- und Kunststoffwaren","C23":"Glas, Keramik, Steine und Erden","C24A":"Eisen und Stahl","C24B":"NE-Metalle","C25":"Metallerzeugnisse","C26":"Elektronik und Optik","C27":"Elektrische Ausrüstungen","C28":"Maschinenbau","C29":"Kraftwagen und Kraftwagenteile","C301":"Schiffbau","C302T309":"Sonstiger Fahrzeugbau (u. a. 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","C29":"Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers","C301":"Building of ships and boats","C302T309":"Manufacture of other transport equipment","C31T33":"Manufacture of furniture; other manufacturing; repair and installation of machinery and equipment","D":"Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply","E":"Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities","F":"Construction","G":"Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles","H49":"Land transport and transport via pipelines","H50":"Water transport","H51":"Air transport","H52":"Warehousing and support activities for transportation","H53":"Postal and courier activities","I":"Accommodation and food service activities","J58T60":"Publishing, Motion picture, video, television programme production and broadcasting activities","J61":"Telecommunications","J62_63":"Computer programming and information service activities","K":"Financial and insurance activities","L":"Real estate activities","M":"Professional, scientific and technical activities","N":"Administrative and support service activities","O":"Public administration and defence; compulsory social security","P":"Education","Q":"Human health and social work activities","R":"Arts, entertainment and recreation activities","S":"Other service activities","T":"Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use"},"checks_en":[{"name":"Textbook example reproduced","result":"passed","text":"The NAFTA example of Yotov, Piermartini, Monteiro and Larch (2016) is reproduced: same RTA coefficient (0.557), export effects within 0.75 percentage points."},{"name":"Model mechanics","result":"passed","text":"Without a shock the model returns the baseline exactly; with one sector and no inputs it equals the one-sector tariff model; the welfare formula of Arkolakis, Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2012) holds in the one-sector case."},{"name":"US imports from China","result":"plausible","text":"Model: -23 % at current tariffs. Observed in 2025: about -30 % (US Census, as reported by PIIE and the press). The model describes long-run adjustment; tariffs changed during 2025."},{"name":"Ex post: US imports by partner","result":"partly","text":"Observed US imports August 2025 to July 2026 against 2024 (IMF IMTS), relative to total imports: correlation with the model 0.43 across 67 partners, 0.73 without South-East Asia, Switzerland and Ireland. The model gets the slump in imports from China; it misses the diversion via Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia, Swiss gold flows and Irish pharmaceutical front-loading. Slope 0.42: in the short run trade reacts less than in the long-run model."},{"name":"US tariff revenue","result":"plausible","text":"Model: USD 192 to 256 bn a year, depending on the elasticity (including pre-2025 tariffs). Observed: USD 195 bn in fiscal year 2025 (CRFB, from the Monthly Treasury Statement), when the tariffs were only partly in force."},{"name":"US welfare","result":"deviation","text":"Ignatenko, Lashkaripour, Macedoni and Simonovska (2025, JIE) find a small US gain without retaliation. Here a gain appears only with low elasticities; in the central case the US loses 0.1 to 0.5 %."},{"name":"EU trade costs since 2000","result":"passed","text":"Own estimate: trade costs in intra-EU manufacturing trade fall by 11.6 points from 2000 to 2019, and those of imports from outside the EU fall too. Head and Mayer (2021, Figure 1) show a similar fall for 2000 to 2018 and likewise no closing-off."},{"name":"Response to longer sea routes","result":"passed","text":"In the model, goods trade on rerouted routes falls with an elasticity of 0.43 with respect to sea distance. Feyrer (2021, Journal of Development Economics) finds about 0.5 for the closure of the Suez Canal in 1967 to 1975. Time costs after Hummels and Schaur (2013) would have implied 2.5 and were not used."},{"name":"Rise of EU exports to the US in the September scenario","result":"explained","text":"EU exports to the US rise by 1.4 % although German exports fall. The cause is trade diversion: almost duty-free EU goods (pharmaceuticals, refined oil, aircraft) and services replace heavily taxed imports from China and India."}],"iso2":{"AGO":"AO","ARE":"AE","ARG":"AR","AUS":"AU","AUT":"AT","BEL":"BE","BGD":"BD","BGR":"BG","BLR":"BY","BRA":"BR","BRN":"BN","CAN":"CA","CHE":"CH","CHL":"CL","CHN":"CN","CIV":"CI","CMR":"CM","COD":"CD","COL":"CO","CRI":"CR","CYP":"CY","CZE":"CZ","DEU":"DE","DNK":"DK","EGY":"EG","ESP":"ES","EST":"EE","FIN":"FI","FRA":"FR","GBR":"GB","GRC":"GR","HKG":"HK","HRV":"HR","HUN":"HU","IDN":"ID","IND":"IN","IRL":"IE","ISL":"IS","ISR":"IL","ITA":"IT","JOR":"JO","JPN":"JP","KAZ":"KZ","KHM":"KH","KOR":"KR","LAO":"LA","LTU":"LT","LUX":"LU","LVA":"LV","MAR":"MA","MEX":"MX","MLT":"MT","MMR":"MM","MYS":"MY","NGA":"NG","NLD":"NL","NOR":"NO","NZL":"NZ","PAK":"PK","PER":"PE","PHL":"PH","POL":"PL","PRT":"PT","ROU":"RO","RUS":"RU","SAU":"SA","SEN":"SN","SGP":"SG","STP":"ST","SVK":"SK","SVN":"SI","SWE":"SE","THA":"TH","TUN":"TN","TUR":"TR","TWN":"TW","UKR":"UA","USA":"US","VNM":"VN","ZAF":"ZA","ROW":""},"scenarios":[{"id":"peak_2025_04","group":"us","title":"US-Zölle auf dem Höhepunkt (10. April 2025)","shock":"US-Zölle wie am 10. April 2025: Zollkrieg mit China (Aufschlag 125 Prozentpunkte), für die übrigen Länder 10 % Mindestzoll während der 90-tägigen Pause sowie Zölle auf Stahl, Aluminium und Autos.","partner":"USA","title_en":"US tariffs at their peak (10 April 2025)","shock_en":"US tariffs as on 10 April 2025: trade war with China (surcharge of 125 percentage points), a 10 % minimum tariff on all other countries during the 90-day pause, and tariffs on steel, aluminium and 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nach den Abkommen (5. September 2025)","shock":"US-Zölle wie am 5. September 2025: Rahmenabkommen mit EU, Japan und Korea (für die EU höchstens 15 % auf die meisten Waren), hohe Aufschläge auf Indien und Brasilien, China nach der Einigung von Genf.","partner":"USA","title_en":"US tariffs after the deals (5 September 2025)","shock_en":"US tariffs as on 5 September 2025: framework deals with the EU, Japan and Korea (for the EU at most 15 % on most goods), high surcharges on India and Brazil, China after the Geneva agreement.","countries":{"AGO":[0.107,0.003,0.107,0.57,32.59,-0.042,0.16],"ARE":[-0.184,-0.3,-0.006,-0.84,1.89,-0.655,6.48],"ARG":[-0.017,-0.044,0.003,-1.47,5.96,-0.414,5.06],"AUS":[-0.1,-0.141,-0.084,-1.85,-4.85,-0.805,7.2],"AUT":[-0.069,-0.077,-0.067,-1.56,-11.75,-0.815,9.75],"BEL":[0.057,0.022,0.057,-0.55,18.89,-0.399,2.87],"BGD":[0.048,0.031,0.067,-2.46,-13.4,-0.92,23.9],"BGR":[-0.034,-0.044,-0.026,-0.99,-0.49,-0.671,8.35],"BLR":[-0.018,-0.047,-0.004,-0.41,36.88,-0.432,8.14],"BRA":[-0.095,-0.172,-0.022,-3.67,-17.62,-0.845,16.33],"BRN":[-0.257,-0.424,-0.242,-0.9,-14.82,-0.859,21.97],"CAN":[-0.492,-0.492,-0.391,-9.63,-15.35,-1.842,9.02],"CHE":[-0.177,-0.267,-0.155,-1.52,-7.92,-0.622,10.83],"CHL":[-0.268,-0.282,-0.203,-3.78,-19.51,-0.785,6.76],"CHN":[-0.211,-0.273,-0.19,-6.4,-57.72,-1.712,44.04],"CIV":[-0.052,-0.06,-0.009,-1.73,-18.42,-0.66,8.29],"CMR":[0.049,0.035,0.065,-0.23,6.25,-0.397,4.11],"COD":[-0.249,-0.358,-0.198,-1.96,-19.22,-1.081,9.9],"COL":[0.033,-0.003,0.059,-1.98,5.96,-0.095,5.46],"CRI":[-0.269,-0.403,-0.227,-4.4,-11.13,-1.188,9.11],"CYP":[0.062,0.047,0.08,-0.19,15.7,-0.189,0.74],"CZE":[-0.039,-0.044,-0.039,-1.22,-15.66,-0.739,11.46],"DEU":[-0.077,-0.09,-0.075,-1.65,-6.81,-0.678,8.01],"DNK":[-0.028,-0.067,-0.02,-0.62,7.99,-0.45,2.67],"EGY":[0.041,0.039,0.05,-0.69,5.9,-0.374,8.22],"ESP":[-0.004,-0.008,0.003,-0.78,1.22,-0.524,6.31],"EST":[0.039,0.014,0.039,-0.42,13.86,-0.407,4.64],"FIN":[-0.058,-0.074,-0.034,-1.82,-8.72,-0.79,7.95],"FRA":[0.013,0.004,0.013,-0.53,10.01,-0.263,4.69],"GBR":[0.059,0.045,0.059,0.24,16.13,-0.084,2.23],"GRC":[0.042,0.014,0.083,-0.8,4.52,-0.466,3.71],"HKG":[0.049,0.037,0.074,0.21,13.16,-0.502,0.7],"HRV":[0.032,-0.006,0.054,-0.58,8.49,-0.546,3.98],"HUN":[0.011,0.003,0.013,-1.35,-3.78,-0.873,8.56],"IDN":[-0.133,-0.178,-0.103,-3.05,-31.39,-1.268,17.69],"IND":[-0.136,-0.159,-0.103,-3.79,-25.12,-1.606,22.09],"IRL":[-0.45,-0.706,-0.323,-0.74,9.76,-0.491,3.35],"ISL":[-0.247,-0.271,-0.157,-2.26,-19.02,-0.926,7.27],"ISR":[-0.01,-0.043,-0.01,-1.41,1.3,-0.47,5.46],"ITA":[-0.024,-0.026,-0.019,-1.36,-6.44,-0.712,9.38],"JOR":[0.072,0.05,0.109,-1.82,-4.07,-0.736,9.09],"JPN":[-0.075,-0.079,-0.067,-3.69,-15.97,-1.143,10.76],"KAZ":[-0.026,-0.09,0.025,-0.28,26.67,-0.32,3.43],"KHM":[0.068,0.005,0.157,-2.75,-18.66,-1.901,21.69],"KOR":[-0.367,-0.458,-0.351,-5.65,-43.44,-2.185,19.31],"LAO":[-0.129,-0.262,-0.041,-1.01,-29.36,-1.018,24.94],"LTU":[-0.095,-0.102,-0.07,-1.23,-6.61,-0.768,7.19],"LUX":[-0.027,-0.063,0.005,-0.03,10.58,-0.102,2.97],"LVA":[0.01,-0.002,0.018,-0.73,4.7,-0.433,4.74],"MAR":[0.034,0.026,0.034,-1.29,-1.13,-0.679,6.19],"MEX":[-0.487,-0.553,-0.429,-10.45,-15.52,-3.053,11.52],"MLT":[0.035,-0.006,0.043,-0.21,27.08,-0.435,0.29],"MMR":[-0.027,-0.072,-0.002,-1.6,-50.98,-1.024,36.78],"MYS":[-0.341,-0.409,-0.243,-3.84,-34.05,-1.669,14.45],"NGA":[0.07,0.059,0.086,0.6,26.75,-0.071,0.88],"NLD":[-0.07,-0.13,-0.058,-1.19,3.99,-0.607,5.37],"NOR":[-0.038,-0.139,0.093,-0.56,-24.0,-0.784,8.08],"NZL":[-0.066,-0.07,-0.062,-3.47,-19.68,-1.097,11.93],"PAK":[0.042,0.019,0.058,-2.85,-11.54,-0.744,19.86],"PER":[-0.173,-0.211,-0.127,-3.8,-11.08,-0.765,7.9],"PHL":[0.031,0.005,0.064,-3.6,-16.07,-1.185,10.6],"POL":[0.015,0.004,0.015,-0.77,-0.71,-0.558,8.31],"PRT":[0.027,0.027,0.047,-0.02,12.2,-0.318,4.71],"ROU":[0.017,0.009,0.023,-1.0,-0.16,-0.559,8.9],"RUS":[-0.012,-0.062,0.044,-0.08,44.4,-0.281,5.23],"SAU":[-0.068,-0.161,0.009,-0.55,24.06,-0.488,1.89],"SEN":[0.059,0.04,0.091,-1.17,2.41,-0.6,5.42],"SGP":[-0.478,-0.656,-0.419,-1.49,8.2,-1.07,2.87],"STP":[0.078,0.044,0.119,0.24,15.48,-0.087,0.51],"SVK":[-0.039,-0.039,-0.008,-2.09,-23.6,-1.133,13.21],"SVN":[0.022,0.01,0.022,-0.7,2.48,-0.582,7.07],"SWE":[-0.072,-0.095,-0.068,-1.63,-8.55,-0.634,8.31],"THA":[-0.403,-0.403,-0.378,-5.3,-38.04,-2.367,17.48],"TUN":[-0.013,-0.03,-0.013,-1.76,-36.45,-0.969,17.52],"TUR":[-0.049,-0.049,-0.034,-2.06,-21.88,-0.874,14.72],"TWN":[0.132,0.066,0.144,1.39,60.48,0.405,0.0],"UKR":[0.048,0.032,0.072,-1.35,-12.83,-0.562,8.73],"USA":[-0.354,-0.415,-0.108,-21.44,null,2.735,0.0],"VNM":[-0.906,-1.004,-0.784,-6.83,-36.96,-2.47,22.1],"ZAF":[-0.13,-0.16,-0.105,-2.6,-37.67,-1.095,16.41],"ROW":[-0.018,-0.051,0.019,-1.6,-1.31,-0.6,6.83],"EU27":[-0.036,-0.052,-0.032,null,1.44,null,null]},"sectors_deu":[["A01",-0.6,-40.33,11.94,0.32,77.2],["A02",-1.43,-45.44,9.76,0.04,7.3],["A03",-0.38,-63.84,13.59,0.02,0.7],["B05",3.61,58.69,0.0,0.0,1.1],["B06",5.92,41.78,0.0,0.0,1.1],["B07",-100.0,-100.0,4.38,0.0,0.0],["B08",-1.82,-47.39,7.81,0.04,9.7],["B09",0.1,14.4,0.0,0.03,1.7],["C10T12",-0.68,-23.69,13.47,2.18,239.2],["C13T15",-1.24,26.27,15.88,0.63,24.8],["C16",-0.1,27.83,1.38,1.17,37.3],["C17_18",-1.67,-60.41,12.1,1.61,70.6],["C19",-0.59,35.82,0.55,0.68,113.2],["C20",-2.72,-22.28,9.08,10.41,192.3],["C21",6.02,33.29,0.27,7.21,65.2],["C22",-1.94,-9.86,10.63,2.65,101.3],["C23",-1.86,-41.2,14.73,1.2,61.3],["C24A",-3.68,-95.18,45.49,0.82,87.0],["C24B",-4.88,-62.76,22.64,1.94,63.0],["C25",-2.77,-70.02,35.0,2.45,167.1],["C26",-4.34,-14.49,7.5,8.32,109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aktuell (22. August 2026)","shock":"US-Zölle wie am 22. August 2026: nach dem Urteil des Supreme Court gegen die IEEPA-Zölle (Februar 2026) vor allem Zölle nach Section 232 (Stahl, Aluminium, Kupfer, Autos, Lkw, Halbleiter, Pharma) und Section 301 sowie Aufschläge auf Kanada.","partner":"USA","title_en":"US tariffs now (22 August 2026)","shock_en":"US tariffs as on 22 August 2026: after the Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs (February 2026), mainly Section 232 tariffs (steel, aluminium, copper, cars, trucks, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals) and Section 301, plus surcharges on Canada.","countries":{"AGO":[-0.026,-0.077,-0.026,0.08,12.72,-0.166,0.13],"ARE":[-0.16,-0.24,-0.067,-0.69,-4.77,-0.523,6.56],"ARG":[-0.03,-0.047,-0.017,-1.43,-2.82,-0.369,4.6],"AUS":[-0.072,-0.101,-0.061,-1.31,-5.29,-0.558,5.9],"AUT":[-0.072,-0.081,-0.069,-1.32,-12.87,-0.694,8.4],"BEL":[0.004,-0.013,0.004,-0.79,4.16,-0.396,3.37],"BGD":[0.028,0.021,0.035,-1.5,-6.29,-0.546,16.26],"BGR":[-0.023,-0.029,-0.018,-0.74,-0.52,-0.527,6.43],"BLR":[-0.014,-0.032,-0.005,-0.27,24.97,-0.323,8.19],"BRA":[-0.069,-0.103,-0.034,-2.41,-8.55,-0.569,7.32],"BRN":[-0.172,-0.274,-0.156,-0.56,26.8,-0.544,8.11],"CAN":[-0.321,-0.425,-0.281,-8.33,-12.39,-2.235,7.89],"CHE":[-0.205,-0.216,-0.15,-1.67,-13.12,-0.851,5.16],"CHL":[-0.277,-0.324,-0.196,-3.76,-34.73,-0.928,8.82],"CHN":[-0.11,-0.141,-0.102,-3.17,-22.75,-0.927,28.54],"CIV":[0.024,0.023,0.036,-0.27,16.41,-0.272,0.33],"CMR":[0.04,0.032,0.043,0.01,18.46,-0.218,0.61],"COD":[-0.168,-0.226,-0.14,-1.22,19.43,-0.686,0.57],"COL":[-0.006,-0.028,0.012,-2.36,-1.42,-0.302,4.55],"CRI":[-0.142,-0.225,-0.127,-2.73,-4.37,-0.709,5.69],"CYP":[0.043,0.035,0.056,-0.13,11.37,-0.183,0.63],"CZE":[-0.048,-0.053,-0.046,-0.98,-14.74,-0.593,8.69],"DEU":[-0.073,-0.079,-0.07,-1.33,-7.39,-0.551,6.37],"DNK":[-0.163,-0.163,-0.135,-0.91,-10.63,-0.435,4.24],"EGY":[0.019,0.016,0.021,-1.08,-5.55,-0.379,8.74],"ESP":[-0.024,-0.028,-0.021,-0.82,-2.79,-0.482,5.18],"EST":[-0.011,-0.022,-0.011,-0.57,3.16,-0.475,4.48],"FIN":[-0.057,-0.066,-0.043,-1.51,-12.26,-0.619,6.44],"FRA":[0.005,-0.003,0.007,-0.5,3.99,-0.255,3.86],"GBR":[0.017,0.011,0.017,-0.38,6.3,-0.219,2.41],"GRC":[0.027,0.011,0.049,-0.69,2.35,-0.412,3.14],"HKG":[0.027,0.021,0.04,0.05,8.22,-0.334,0.69],"HRV":[0.012,-0.014,0.028,-0.64,1.9,-0.498,3.52],"HUN":[-0.023,-0.024,-0.021,-1.14,-9.08,-0.697,7.36],"IDN":[-0.073,-0.094,-0.058,-1.76,-13.71,-0.77,10.52],"IND":[-0.04,-0.04,-0.033,-1.48,-5.96,-0.746,8.04],"IRL":[-0.984,-0.988,-0.903,-1.06,-4.76,-0.724,3.86],"ISL":[0.265,0.147,0.283,1.58,33.9,0.247,0.19],"ISR":[-0.018,-0.051,-0.017,-1.13,-0.12,-0.392,4.08],"ITA":[-0.04,-0.042,-0.031,-1.35,-10.0,-0.626,7.91],"JOR":[0.169,0.145,0.237,1.22,17.24,-0.015,2.07],"JPN":[-0.071,-0.072,-0.067,-3.09,-16.38,-0.883,9.03],"KAZ":[-0.021,-0.055,-0.004,-0.11,21.49,-0.249,1.49],"KHM":[0.033,0.001,0.074,-1.92,-11.65,-1.344,15.03],"KOR":[-0.247,-0.283,-0.242,-3.98,-30.03,-1.453,11.17],"LAO":[-0.052,-0.108,-0.012,-0.33,22.59,-0.616,4.34],"LTU":[-0.071,-0.08,-0.053,-1.01,-5.75,-0.643,5.26],"LUX":[-0.029,-0.066,-0.002,-0.02,6.58,-0.099,2.77],"LVA":[-0.045,-0.045,-0.033,-1.02,-15.81,-0.607,6.11],"MAR":[0.006,-0.004,0.006,-1.09,-5.94,-0.568,5.54],"MEX":[-0.868,-0.968,-0.756,-17.79,-30.74,-5.503,13.42],"MLT":[0.012,-0.008,0.02,-0.18,18.84,-0.333,0.23],"MMR":[0.052,0.052,0.065,0.26,34.64,-0.356,5.7],"MYS":[-0.234,-0.275,-0.176,-2.63,-20.56,-1.096,9.29],"NGA":[0.027,0.022,0.036,-0.03,9.15,-0.109,0.64],"NLD":[-0.073,-0.112,-0.071,-1.03,-0.34,-0.533,4.61],"NOR":[-0.06,-0.142,0.004,-0.44,-20.27,-0.645,6.22],"NZL":[-0.048,-0.049,-0.045,-2.43,-15.06,-0.746,8.66],"PAK":[0.028,0.017,0.034,-1.88,-6.54,-0.485,13.47],"PER":[-0.156,-0.206,-0.11,-3.19,-17.31,-0.764,7.67],"PHL":[0.022,0.008,0.041,-2.42,-8.36,-0.733,6.39],"POL":[-0.011,-0.021,-0.008,-0.69,-1.7,-0.47,6.16],"PRT":[0.005,0.005,0.015,-0.36,3.96,-0.37,4.08],"ROU":[0.012,0.01,0.012,-0.85,-6.16,-0.487,8.0],"RUS":[-0.026,-0.058,0.004,-0.22,19.55,-0.295,6.64],"SAU":[-0.066,-0.121,-0.007,-0.44,10.73,-0.333,1.43],"SEN":[0.073,0.062,0.092,-0.02,24.16,-0.279,0.44],"SGP":[-0.381,-0.518,-0.327,-1.17,2.47,-0.822,2.72],"STP":[0.073,0.058,0.094,0.21,12.09,-0.096,0.25],"SVK":[-0.017,-0.017,-0.002,-1.1,-9.26,-0.678,9.38],"SVN":[-0.076,-0.079,-0.058,-1.14,-21.32,-0.606,8.5],"SWE":[-0.073,-0.085,-0.07,-1.39,-10.74,-0.584,6.97],"THA":[-0.321,-0.335,-0.304,-4.21,-30.67,-1.814,13.29],"TUN":[0.079,0.066,0.087,-0.31,11.86,-0.229,3.18],"TUR":[-0.066,-0.066,-0.055,-1.98,-23.86,-0.774,12.85],"TWN":[0.09,0.051,0.097,0.93,39.22,0.3,0.0],"UKR":[0.036,0.029,0.048,-0.9,-1.3,-0.399,4.99],"USA":[-0.117,-0.159,0.038,-16.88,null,2.01,0.0],"VNM":[-0.687,-0.823,-0.6,-4.85,-26.7,-1.728,16.34],"ZAF":[-0.093,-0.109,-0.072,-1.84,-23.26,-0.771,9.8],"ROW":[-0.011,-0.027,0.005,-1.03,1.16,-0.396,3.83],"EU27":[-0.059,-0.065,-0.056,null,-4.61,null,null]},"sectors_deu":[["A01",-0.45,-31.29,8.46,0.32,77.2],["A02",-1.88,-48.07,9.92,0.04,7.3],["A03",-0.14,-51.73,10.0,0.02,0.7],["B05",3.74,41.34,0.0,0.0,1.1],["B06",4.54,16.11,0.0,0.0,1.1],["B07",-100.0,-100.0,2.1,0.0,0.0],["B08",-1.25,-29.58,5.33,0.04,9.7],["B09",0.17,9.19,0.0,0.03,1.7],["C10T12",-0.52,-14.55,10.54,2.18,239.2],["C13T15",-0.64,14.45,11.97,0.63,24.8],["C16",-2.45,-45.6,9.97,1.17,37.3],["C17_18",-1.45,-47.96,8.88,1.61,70.6],["C19",-0.56,17.26,0.36,0.68,113.2],["C20",-1.62,-11.25,6.68,10.41,192.3],["C21",-4.12,-39.06,5.81,7.21,65.2],["C22",-1.34,-5.72,8.92,2.65,101.3],["C23",-1.23,-25.73,10.2,1.2,61.3],["C24A",-2.84,-95.52,45.4,0.82,87.0],["C24B",-3.98,-64.31,21.76,1.94,63.0],["C25",-2.16,-67.62,31.95,2.45,167.1],["C26",-2.66,-15.3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aktuell, EU antwortet mit Gegenzöllen","shock":"US-Zölle wie am 22. August 2026; die EU erhebt auf US-Waren in jeder Branche denselben Aufschlag, den die USA seit Januar 2025 auf Waren des jeweiligen EU-Landes erheben (spiegelbildliche Vergeltung). Die tatsächlich beschlossene Gegenliste der EU über rund 93 Mrd. Euro (Juli 2025) ist ausgesetzt und hier nicht einzeln abgebildet.","partner":"USA","title_en":"US tariffs now, EU retaliates","shock_en":"US tariffs as on 22 August 2026; the EU raises its tariffs on US goods in every sector by the same amount as the US has raised its tariffs on goods from each EU country since January 2025 (mirror retaliation). The EU countermeasure list of about EUR 93 bn (July 2025) is suspended and not coded item by 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aktuell, alle Länder antworten mit Gegenzöllen","shock":"US-Zölle wie am 22. August 2026; alle Länder erheben auf US-Waren spiegelbildlich denselben Aufschlag, den die USA seit Januar 2025 auf ihre Waren erheben.","partner":"USA","title_en":"US tariffs now, all countries retaliate","shock_en":"US tariffs as on 22 August 2026; every country mirrors the increase in US tariffs on its own goods since January 2025 on its imports from the 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vertieft sich weiter bis 2030","shock":"Die Handelskosten im EU-Warenhandel sinken zehn weitere Jahre im Tempo von 2000 bis 2019, geschätzt mit Daten zum Inlandsabsatz (ITPD-E) nach der Methode von Head und Mayer (2021).","partner":"EU","title_en":"Single market keeps deepening to 2030","shock_en":"Trade costs within the EU keep falling for ten more years at the 2000 to 2019 pace, estimated with domestic sales data (ITPD-E) following Head and Mayer 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9.51,47.7],["C31T33",2.43,37.75,null,20.06,124.0],["D",1.1,3.74,null,19.79,220.8],["E",0.23,3.8,null,0.39,93.9],["F",0.55,1.51,null,1.82,441.5],["G",0.54,3.39,null,96.16,743.2],["H49",0.74,3.12,null,19.59,140.3],["H50",-0.88,1.05,null,8.42,56.9],["H51",-0.29,1.08,null,3.59,38.5],["H52",0.5,2.18,null,10.51,191.4],["H53",-0.02,0.11,null,1.14,69.1],["I",0.28,1.36,null,1.9,120.3],["J58T60",-0.06,0.81,null,8.13,70.0],["J61",0.29,1.96,null,2.27,72.6],["J62_63",-0.02,1.15,null,17.3,224.3],["K",-0.18,0.45,null,29.07,319.4],["L",0.51,2.57,null,0.97,498.1],["M",-0.38,2.4,null,42.87,503.4],["N",0.28,0.94,null,28.61,345.1],["O",0.56,1.66,null,0.0,365.4],["P",0.48,1.48,null,2.57,233.4],["Q",0.56,1.41,null,0.19,477.5],["R",-0.15,3.77,null,1.46,75.1],["S",0.51,1.94,null,0.14,117.6],["T",0.56,-100.0,null,0.0,9.0]]},{"id":"services_deeper","group":"eu","title":"Dienstleistungsbinnenmarkt so tief wie bei Waren","shock":"Der Binnenmarkteffekt im Dienstleistungshandel steigt auf das Niveau des Warenhandels in einer vergleichbaren Stichprobe (Koeffizient +0,14 nach Mayer, Vicard und Zignago 2019).","partner":"EU","title_en":"Services single market as deep as for goods","shock_en":"The single market effect in services rises to the level of goods in a comparable sample (coefficient +0.14, Mayer, Vicard and Zignago 2019).","countries":{"AGO":[-0.015,-0.023,-0.013,-0.02,0.25,-0.043,null],"ARE":[-0.012,-0.021,-0.01,-0.05,-0.34,-0.048,null],"ARG":[-0.002,-0.003,-0.002,-0.09,-0.54,-0.042,null],"AUS":[-0.003,-0.006,-0.003,-0.05,-0.04,-0.041,null],"AUT":[0.399,0.285,0.561,2.88,4.93,0.322,null],"BEL":[0.533,0.409,0.799,3.5,5.92,0.492,null],"BGD":[0.003,0.002,0.004,-0.1,-0.22,-0.046,null],"BGR":[0.38,0.272,0.527,2.24,4.25,0.313,null],"BLR":[-0.011,-0.018,-0.009,-0.09,-0.61,-0.048,null],"BRA":[-0.001,-0.002,-0.001,-0.08,-0.25,-0.042,null],"BRN":[-0.019,-0.03,-0.015,-0.06,-1.3,-0.052,null],"CAN":[-0.001,-0.003,-0.001,-0.06,-0.63,-0.043,null],"CHE":[-0.011,-0.026,-0.008,-0.13,-0.43,-0.04,null],"CHL":[0.002,0.0,0.002,-0.06,-0.25,-0.042,null],"CHN":[-0.002,-0.002,-0.002,-0.05,-0.05,-0.038,null],"CIV":[0.001,0.001,0.003,-0.07,-0.09,-0.047,null],"CMR":[-0.002,-0.004,-0.002,-0.1,-0.25,-0.052,null],"COD":[0.002,0.001,0.004,-0.05,0.2,-0.037,null],"COL":[0.004,0.002,0.004,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,null],"CRI":[-0.001,-0.003,-0.0,-0.05,-0.3,-0.041,null],"CYP":[0.563,0.418,0.787,3.29,11.14,1.161,null],"CZE":[0.362,0.261,0.509,2.48,3.61,0.343,null],"DEU":[0.219,0.154,0.307,2.26,4.89,0.156,null],"DNK":[0.466,0.343,0.665,2.47,6.77,0.488,null],"EGY":[-0.0,-0.002,0.001,-0.18,-0.56,-0.05,null],"ESP":[0.195,0.136,0.268,2.08,4.51,0.156,null],"EST":[0.583,0.434,0.835,3.14,5.53,0.555,null],"FIN":[0.26,0.186,0.372,2.48,4.92,0.199,null],"FRA":[0.196,0.136,0.273,2.94,6.46,0.149,null],"GBR":[-0.006,-0.011,-0.005,-0.15,-0.38,-0.05,null],"GRC":[0.213,0.145,0.285,2.42,6.38,0.32,null],"HKG":[-0.005,-0.008,-0.004,-0.11,-1.0,-0.063,null],"HRV":[0.339,0.244,0.48,3.05,6.61,0.266,null],"HUN":[0.468,0.354,0.691,2.58,3.87,0.452,null],"IDN":[-0.002,-0.003,-0.002,-0.04,-0.02,-0.043,null],"IND":[-0.002,-0.002,-0.001,-0.1,-0.78,-0.043,null],"IRL":[1.12,1.036,1.952,2.18,8.06,1.28,null],"ISL":[-0.018,-0.03,-0.016,-0.17,-0.54,-0.082,null],"ISR":[-0.008,-0.016,-0.007,-0.12,-0.81,-0.049,null],"ITA":[0.173,0.114,0.233,2.38,4.79,0.111,null],"JOR":[0.008,0.004,0.01,-0.09,-0.5,-0.04,null],"JPN":[0.001,-0.0,0.001,-0.08,-0.43,-0.039,null],"KAZ":[-0.006,-0.009,-0.004,-0.02,0.05,-0.03,null],"KHM":[0.004,0.0,0.006,-0.08,-0.78,-0.059,null],"KOR":[-0.001,-0.001,-0.001,-0.06,-0.16,-0.04,null],"LAO":[-0.006,-0.008,-0.004,-0.04,-0.24,-0.044,null],"LTU":[0.536,0.393,0.76,3.04,5.4,0.496,null],"LUX":[3.243,2.391,4.294,5.91,11.76,3.468,null],"LVA":[0.417,0.309,0.608,3.35,5.91,0.371,null],"MAR":[-0.0,-0.003,0.0,-0.11,-0.24,-0.038,null],"MEX":[0.001,-0.0,0.002,-0.06,-0.49,-0.039,null],"MLT":[1.025,0.836,1.56,3.56,10.92,1.469,null],"MMR":[0.001,0.0,0.001,-0.04,-0.14,-0.043,null],"MYS":[-0.005,-0.009,-0.005,-0.05,-0.26,-0.041,null],"NGA":[0.002,0.001,0.003,-0.05,0.01,-0.036,null],"NLD":[0.343,0.269,0.523,2.42,4.77,0.279,null],"NOR":[-0.004,-0.011,0.006,-0.05,0.05,-0.079,null],"NZL":[0.002,0.001,0.003,-0.06,-0.29,-0.042,null],"PAK":[0.004,0.003,0.006,-0.08,-0.18,-0.041,null],"PER":[0.0,0.0,0.001,-0.04,0.11,-0.039,null],"PHL":[0.005,0.003,0.007,-0.08,-0.54,-0.042,null],"POL":[0.33,0.242,0.471,2.41,3.98,0.257,null],"PRT":[0.293,0.198,0.393,2.82,5.47,0.248,null],"ROU":[0.274,0.194,0.385,3.45,5.68,0.245,null],"RUS":[-0.008,-0.013,-0.008,-0.07,-0.21,-0.048,null],"SAU":[-0.011,-0.016,-0.01,-0.04,-0.13,-0.047,null],"SEN":[0.01,0.005,0.013,-0.12,-0.42,-0.037,null],"SGP":[-0.048,-0.08,-0.043,-0.12,-1.3,-0.101,null],"STP":[0.013,0.008,0.021,-0.19,-0.43,-0.061,null],"SVK":[0.398,0.273,0.536,2.31,3.45,0.353,null],"SVN":[0.422,0.325,0.626,2.28,3.82,0.365,null],"SWE":[0.32,0.228,0.452,2.85,6.02,0.242,null],"THA":[-0.001,-0.001,-0.0,-0.05,-0.32,-0.041,null],"TUN":[0.003,-0.001,0.005,-0.07,-0.12,-0.044,null],"TUR":[-0.001,-0.002,-0.001,-0.07,-0.21,-0.037,null],"TWN":[-0.01,-0.015,-0.008,-0.04,-0.16,-0.036,null],"UKR":[0.0,-0.003,0.002,-0.2,-0.34,-0.041,null],"USA":[0.001,-0.001,0.001,-0.16,-0.59,-0.043,null],"VNM":[0.0,-0.001,0.001,-0.03,0.1,-0.04,null],"ZAF":[0.0,-0.001,0.001,-0.04,-0.07,-0.035,null],"ROW":[0.008,0.003,0.01,-0.07,-0.17,-0.041,null],"EU27":[0.288,0.211,0.414,null,5.39,null,null]},"sectors_deu":[["A01",0.13,0.26,null,5.69,77.2],["A02",0.19,0.49,null,0.53,7.3],["A03",-0.12,0.15,null,0.14,0.7],["B05",-1.43,-0.78,null,0.1,1.1],["B06",0.25,0.66,null,0.02,1.1],["B07",-100.0,-100.0,null,0.0,0.0],["B08",0.2,0.47,null,1.1,9.7],["B09",0.04,-0.23,null,0.11,1.7],["C10T12",0.2,0.33,null,39.19,239.2],["C13T15",0.15,0.25,null,9.36,24.8],["C16",0.29,0.61,null,4.22,37.3],["C17_18",0.24,0.43,null,13.63,70.6],["C19",0.44,0.87,null,13.22,113.2],["C20",0.32,0.37,null,61.43,192.3],["C21",0.57,1.0,null,17.39,65.2],["C22",0.09,0.21,null,24.18,101.3],["C23",0.14,0.32,null,7.53,61.3],["C24A",0.08,0.18,null,11.91,87.0],["C24B",0.07,0.16,null,11.06,63.0],["C25",0.11,0.28,null,21.69,167.1],["C26",-0.3,-0.04,null,35.2,109.9],["C27",0.03,0.19,null,38.65,135.5],["C28",0.04,0.2,null,68.46,303.0],["C29",-0.02,0.12,null,100.14,496.5],["C301",0.31,0.71,null,1.6,8.0],["C302T309",-0.18,-0.0,null,9.51,47.7],["C31T33",0.11,0.29,null,20.06,1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Chinas bei abhängigen Waren","shock":"China liefert der EU keine Waren mehr, bei denen die EU nach den Kriterien der EU-Kommission abhängig ist (497 HS6-Positionen, Importwert aus China 2024 rund 157 Mrd. USD). Andere Lieferanten und die eigene Produktion springen langfristig ein; kurzfristige Engpässe ohne Ersatz kosten deutlich mehr.","partner":"CHN","title_en":"China stops supplying dependent goods","shock_en":"China no longer supplies the EU with goods on which the EU depends by the European Commission's criteria (497 HS6 lines, imports from China in 2024 about USD 157 bn). Other suppliers and EU production step in over the long run; short-run bottlenecks without substitutes cost much more.","countries":{"AGO":[-0.016,-0.034,-0.01,-0.08,1.11,-0.016,null],"ARE":[-0.008,-0.008,-0.001,-0.0,0.88,0.02,null],"ARG":[0.002,0.002,0.003,0.03,1.13,0.014,null],"AUS":[-0.007,-0.01,-0.005,-0.1,0.8,-0.025,null],"AUT":[-0.071,-0.117,-0.062,0.0,-13.38,0.15,null],"BEL":[-0.046,-0.076,-0.037,0.04,-11.63,0.093,null],"BGD":[0.024,0.022,0.032,0.8,1.28,0.09,null],"BGR":[-0.042,-0.078,-0.036,0.21,-12.01,0.201,null],"BLR":[0.002,0.002,0.005,0.04,1.38,0.039,null],"BRA":[-0.002,-0.004,-0.001,-0.08,1.13,0.003,null],"BRN":[-0.009,-0.015,-0.006,-0.03,1.13,-0.03,null],"CAN":[0.002,0.001,0.003,0.02,1.04,0.024,null],"CHE":[0.015,0.013,0.029,0.11,1.93,0.093,null],"CHL":[-0.008,-0.011,-0.005,-0.13,0.74,-0.029,null],"CHN":[-0.037,-0.064,-0.034,-1.21,-0.16,-0.237,null],"CIV":[0.002,0.002,0.004,0.05,1.27,0.04,null],"CMR":[0.002,0.001,0.004,0.03,1.25,0.03,null],"COD":[-0.025,-0.047,-0.022,-0.2,0.59,-0.082,null],"COL":[0.004,0.004,0.006,0.02,0.94,0.011,null],"CRI":[0.006,0.006,0.01,0.05,1.07,0.033,null],"CYP":[-0.064,-0.121,-0.063,-0.02,-7.06,0.025,null],"CZE":[-0.135,-0.246,-0.13,-0.23,-13.43,0.141,null],"DEU":[-0.092,-0.167,-0.087,-0.27,-13.83,0.12,null],"DNK":[-0.05,-0.081,-0.043,-0.07,-9.66,0.07,null],"EGY":[0.002,0.001,0.002,0.15,1.31,0.048,null],"ESP":[-0.089,-0.14,-0.075,-0.19,-11.39,0.103,null],"EST":[-0.087,-0.168,-0.087,0.06,-12.36,0.127,null],"FIN":[-0.063,-0.103,-0.054,-0.26,-11.35,0.118,null],"FRA":[-0.058,-0.088,-0.047,-0.12,-11.8,0.072,null],"GBR":[0.003,0.002,0.003,0.09,1.44,0.064,null],"GRC":[-0.089,-0.143,-0.075,-0.11,-9.56,0.097,null],"HKG":[0.005,0.004,0.011,0.05,0.82,-0.015,null],"HRV":[-0.072,-0.123,-0.064,0.05,-15.97,0.15,null],"HUN":[-0.101,-0.168,-0.09,0.14,-16.49,0.217,null],"IDN":[-0.002,-0.003,-0.001,-0.01,0.86,-0.003,null],"IND":[0.006,0.005,0.009,0.15,1.31,0.038,null],"IRL":[-0.05,-0.06,-0.035,-0.04,-12.59,0.052,null],"ISL":[0.005,0.004,0.007,0.27,1.74,0.123,null],"ISR":[0.005,0.003,0.007,0.05,1.35,0.049,null],"ITA":[-0.054,-0.088,-0.048,-0.23,-11.67,0.164,null],"JOR":[0.003,0.001,0.003,0.02,1.01,0.023,null],"JPN":[0.003,0.003,0.004,0.03,0.94,0.001,null],"KAZ":[0.001,-0.003,0.006,-0.02,1.1,0.01,null],"KHM":[0.043,0.038,0.075,0.12,0.58,0.042,null],"KOR":[0.003,0.003,0.003,0.01,1.01,0.001,null],"LAO":[-0.003,-0.01,0.0,-0.03,0.71,-0.017,null],"LTU":[-0.052,-0.09,-0.047,0.1,-13.27,0.146,null],"LUX":[0.005,0.002,0.005,0.02,-4.08,0.057,null],"LVA":[-0.041,-0.07,-0.036,0.13,-11.82,0.122,null],"MAR":[0.018,0.018,0.024,0.41,1.94,0.172,null],"MEX":[0.009,0.007,0.012,0.09,1.1,0.032,null],"MLT":[-0.067,-0.092,-0.051,-0.11,-5.05,0.005,null],"MMR":[0.013,0.012,0.023,0.17,0.85,0.014,null],"MYS":[0.001,-0.0,0.004,0.05,1.1,0.006,null],"NGA":[0.004,0.003,0.008,0.06,0.94,0.02,null],"NLD":[-0.023,-0.036,-0.019,0.02,-10.21,0.127,null],"NOR":[0.004,-0.007,0.028,0.02,1.58,0.068,null],"NZL":[-0.004,-0.007,-0.004,-0.11,0.86,-0.025,null],"PAK":[0.007,0.005,0.01,0.43,1.28,0.029,null],"PER":[-0.003,-0.005,0.0,-0.07,0.79,-0.006,null],"PHL":[0.005,0.003,0.01,0.15,1.06,0.019,null],"POL":[-0.139,-0.215,-0.116,-0.14,-12.03,0.178,null],"PRT":[-0.049,-0.091,-0.048,0.03,-13.68,0.127,null],"ROU":[-0.037,-0.067,-0.032,0.18,-13.1,0.184,null],"RUS":[0.0,-0.001,0.004,-0.03,1.21,0.033,null],"SAU":[-0.005,-0.007,-0.002,-0.05,1.01,0.019,null],"SEN":[-0.011,-0.019,-0.009,0.01,1.71,0.017,null],"SGP":[0.006,0.006,0.011,-0.0,1.09,-0.001,null],"STP":[-0.015,-0.028,-0.014,0.05,1.5,0.05,null],"SVK":[-0.139,-0.212,-0.116,-0.28,-15.15,-0.004,null],"SVN":[-0.083,-0.165,-0.083,0.18,-10.19,0.235,null],"SWE":[-0.057,-0.083,-0.044,-0.09,-9.96,0.097,null],"THA":[0.007,0.006,0.014,0.12,1.03,0.04,null],"TUN":[0.046,0.044,0.064,0.71,2.23,0.262,null],"TUR":[0.017,0.013,0.02,0.33,1.77,0.129,null],"TWN":[-0.013,-0.022,-0.01,-0.06,0.97,-0.017,null],"UKR":[-0.002,-0.008,-0.002,0.16,1.5,0.069,null],"USA":[0.004,0.004,0.005,0.07,1.12,0.026,null],"VNM":[0.026,0.022,0.047,0.18,0.94,0.024,null],"ZAF":[0.003,-0.001,0.007,0.01,1.09,0.015,null],"ROW":[-0.005,-0.008,-0.003,-0.04,1.19,0.019,null],"EU27":[-0.072,-0.119,-0.063,null,-12.41,null,null]},"sectors_deu":[["A01",-0.03,null,null,null,77.2],["A02",0.08,null,null,null,7.3],["A03",-0.65,null,null,null,0.7],["B05",-1.23,null,null,null,1.1],["B06",-1.32,null,null,null,1.1],["B07",-100.0,null,null,null,0.0],["B08",-0.17,null,null,null,9.7],["B09",-0.25,null,null,null,1.7],["C10T12",-0.02,null,null,null,239.2],["C13T15",2.35,null,null,null,24.8],["C16",0.64,null,null,null,37.3],["C17_18",-0.14,null,null,null,70.6],["C19",-0.16,null,null,null,113.2],["C20",-0.24,null,null,null,192.3],["C21",-0.97,null,null,null,65.2],["C22",0.12,null,null,null,101.3],["C23",0.37,null,null,null,61.3],["C24A",0.08,null,null,null,87.0],["C24B",0.74,null,null,null,63.0],["C25",0.54,null,null,null,167.1],["C26",2.37,null,null,null,109.9],["C27",5.18,null,null,null,135.5],["C28",-0.18,null,null,null,303.0],["C29",-0.44,null,null,null,496.5],["C301",-0.35,null,null,null,8.0],["C302T309",-0.81,null,null,null,47.7],["C31T33",1.69,null,null,null,124.0],["D",0.06,null,null,null,220.8],["E",0.13,null,null,null,93.9],["F",0.09,null,null,null,441.5],["G",-0.0,null,null,null,743.2],["H49",-0.0,null,null,null,140.3],["H50",-0.36,null,null,null,56.9],["H51",-0.27,null,null,null,38.5],["H52",-0.03,null,null,null,191.4],["H53",-0.07,null,null,null,69.1],["I",-0.02,null,null,null,120.3],["J58T60",-0.13,null,null,null,70.0],["J61",-0.04,null,null,null,72.6],["J62_63",-0.09,null,null,null,224.3],["K",-0.05,null,null,null,319.4],["L",0.07,null,null,null,498.1],["M",-0.25,null,null,null,503.4],["N",-0.02,null,null,null,345.1],["O",0.1,null,null,null,365.4],["P",0.08,null,null,null,233.4],["Q",0.1,null,null,null,477.5],["R",-0.06,null,null,null,75.1],["S",0.08,null,null,null,117.6],["T",0.1,null,null,null,9.0]],"short_run":{"DEU":-0.933,"EU27":-0.627,"CHN":-0.093,"USA":-0.002}},{"id":"red_sea_2024","group":"transport","title":"Rotes Meer: Umleitung wie 2024","shock":"Rund die Hälfte der Schiffe meidet Suezkanal und Bab el-Mandeb und fährt um das Kap der Guten Hoffnung, wie 2024 nach den Angriffen im Roten Meer (Suez-Durchfahrten 2024 rund -49 % gegenüber 2023). Seewege zwischen Europa und Asien werden dadurch im Mittel um 12 Tage länger (Deutschland 10 bis 14 Tage, Mittelmeerhäfen bis 25 Tage).","partner":"Routen","title_en":"Red Sea: rerouting as in 2024","shock_en":"About half of all ships avoid the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb and sail around the Cape of Good Hope, as in 2024 after the attacks in the Red Sea (Suez transits about -49 % on 2023). Sea routes between Europe and Asia get 12 days longer on average (Germany 10 to 14 days, Mediterranean ports up to 25 days).","countries":{"AGO":[0.018,0.015,0.043,0.03,null,0.037,null],"ARE":[-0.333,-0.619,-0.315,-0.89,-5.82,-0.333,null],"ARG":[0.0,-0.001,0.001,0.02,null,0.03,null],"AUS":[-0.015,-0.03,-0.014,-0.12,-1.3,0.019,null],"AUT":[-0.053,-0.103,-0.043,-0.11,-4.25,0.04,null],"BEL":[-0.044,-0.086,-0.037,-0.08,-3.76,0.033,null],"BGD":[-0.073,-0.14,-0.064,-2.21,-3.28,-0.17,null],"BGR":[-0.096,-0.176,-0.087,-0.27,-9.54,-0.007,null],"BLR":[-0.034,-0.067,-0.029,0.05,-4.29,0.049,null],"BRA":[0.002,0.001,0.003,0.07,null,0.037,null],"BRN":[-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,-0.15,-1.18,-0.03,null],"CAN":[-0.01,-0.019,-0.009,-0.01,-3.31,0.039,null],"CHE":[-0.05,-0.098,-0.042,-0.25,-3.0,-0.008,null],"CHL":[-0.002,-0.004,-0.001,0.03,null,0.026,null],"CHN":[-0.034,-0.066,-0.033,-0.88,-4.5,-0.037,null],"CIV":[0.001,-0.002,0.002,0.1,null,0.04,null],"CMR":[0.003,0.0,0.005,0.1,null,0.033,null],"COD":[-0.002,-0.007,-0.002,0.02,null,0.017,null],"COL":[-0.006,-0.011,-0.005,-0.01,-4.32,0.035,null],"CRI":[0.001,-0.001,0.002,0.08,-1.05,0.05,null],"CYP":[-0.149,-0.295,-0.148,-0.17,-1.65,-0.063,null],"CZE":[-0.064,-0.125,-0.056,-0.09,-4.99,0.074,null],"DEU":[-0.058,-0.113,-0.052,-0.32,-4.06,0.027,null],"DNK":[-0.04,-0.077,-0.037,-0.13,-1.48,0.012,null],"EGY":[-0.158,-0.29,-0.151,-2.91,-12.61,0.231,null],"ESP":[-0.089,-0.171,-0.076,-0.41,-4.99,0.033,null],"EST":[-0.052,-0.101,-0.047,0.03,-2.59,0.046,null],"FIN":[-0.043,-0.083,-0.038,-0.32,-3.89,-0.006,null],"FRA":[-0.045,-0.087,-0.04,-0.24,-3.58,0.013,null],"GBR":[-0.058,-0.113,-0.051,-0.38,-2.7,0.022,null],"GRC":[-0.115,-0.217,-0.098,-0.43,-3.61,-0.01,null],"HKG":[-0.011,-0.021,-0.01,-0.11,-0.52,0.003,null],"HRV":[-0.065,-0.122,-0.058,-0.09,-2.81,0.04,null],"HUN":[-0.065,-0.127,-0.059,-0.07,-4.65,0.036,null],"IDN":[-0.034,-0.065,-0.03,-0.52,-3.54,-0.054,null],"IND":[-0.136,-0.253,-0.131,-2.48,-5.74,-0.32,null],"IRL":[-0.089,-0.174,-0.081,-0.15,-2.47,-0.068,null],"ISL":[-0.031,-0.063,-0.028,0.06,-1.58,0.048,null],"ISR":[-0.198,-0.365,-0.18,-1.54,-7.63,-0.025,null],"ITA":[-0.102,-0.191,-0.091,-0.97,-8.69,0.005,null],"JOR":[0.007,0.001,0.015,0.3,null,0.096,null],"JPN":[-0.007,-0.017,-0.007,-0.16,-1.32,0.035,null],"KAZ":[-0.079,-0.153,-0.07,-0.31,-4.14,-0.095,null],"KHM":[-0.113,-0.217,-0.105,-0.47,-2.02,-0.22,null],"KOR":[-0.04,-0.078,-0.038,-0.44,-3.55,-0.027,null],"LAO":[-0.006,-0.014,-0.005,0.04,null,-0.026,null],"LTU":[-0.022,-0.043,-0.021,0.12,-3.26,0.095,null],"LUX":[-0.005,-0.009,-0.001,0.02,-0.98,0.029,null],"LVA":[-0.026,-0.05,-0.023,0.01,-3.5,0.031,null],"MAR":[-0.124,-0.237,-0.118,-0.66,-7.03,-0.048,null],"MEX":[0.0,-0.002,0.001,0.11,-2.46,0.067,null],"MLT":[-0.126,-0.237,-0.111,-0.21,-1.38,-0.043,null],"MMR":[-0.046,-0.088,-0.041,-0.62,-4.55,-0.107,null],"MYS":[-0.116,-0.222,-0.105,-0.79,-3.94,-0.178,null],"NGA":[0.002,0.001,0.003,0.09,null,0.035,null],"NLD":[-0.045,-0.087,-0.041,-0.16,-3.27,0.03,null],"NOR":[-0.049,-0.097,-0.042,-0.11,-3.65,0.021,null],"NZL":[-0.005,-0.011,-0.005,0.03,-1.53,0.024,null],"PAK":[-0.08,-0.148,-0.076,-3.83,-7.18,-0.179,null],"PER":[-0.002,-0.004,-0.0,0.02,-2.05,0.036,null],"PHL":[-0.031,-0.059,-0.03,-0.29,-2.21,-0.007,null],"POL":[-0.072,-0.14,-0.059,-0.06,-4.26,0.083,null],"PRT":[-0.042,-0.08,-0.039,-0.07,-3.66,0.071,null],"ROU":[-0.053,-0.098,-0.046,-0.28,-8.06,0.04,null],"RUS":[-0.069,-0.134,-0.061,-0.63,-4.49,0.026,null],"SAU":[0.013,0.01,0.029,0.08,null,0.062,null],"SEN":[-0.062,-0.121,-0.055,-0.79,-3.3,-0.056,null],"SGP":[-0.2,-0.386,-0.193,-0.39,-1.59,-0.162,null],"STP":[-0.013,-0.026,-0.012,0.02,null,0.028,null],"SVK":[-0.211,-0.399,-0.181,-1.18,-11.04,-0.372,null],"SVN":[-0.148,-0.279,-0.143,-0.3,-8.24,-0.03,null],"SWE":[-0.038,-0.074,-0.032,-0.14,-3.3,0.023,null],"THA":[-0.126,-0.242,-0.12,-0.75,-3.46,-0.193,null],"TUN":[-0.203,-0.383,-0.193,-0.51,-10.86,-0.028,null],"TUR":[-0.173,-0.339,-0.164,-1.11,-9.36,0.078,null],"TWN":[-0.063,-0.123,-0.059,-0.39,-3.96,-0.048,null],"UKR":[-0.189,-0.355,-0.176,-1.23,-10.63,-0.072,null],"USA":[-0.008,-0.015,-0.006,-0.17,-3.0,0.04,null],"VNM":[-0.166,-0.322,-0.153,-0.82,-2.9,-0.191,null],"ZAF":[-0.013,-0.028,-0.013,-0.06,-2.34,0.033,null],"ROW":[0.003,0.001,0.005,0.13,null,0.052,null],"EU27":[-0.065,-0.124,-0.057,null,null,null,null]},"sectors_deu":[["A01",0.21,-6.48,null,0.32,77.2],["A02",-0.24,-6.56,null,0.48,7.3],["A03",0.31,-7.05,null,0.0,0.7],["B05",0.72,-8.13,null,0.0,1.1],["B06",-0.31,-7.07,null,0.0,1.1],["B07",-100.0,null,null,0.0,0.0],["B08",0.12,-6.84,null,0.15,9.7],["B09",2.53,-6.01,null,0.01,1.7],["C10T12",0.1,-5.96,null,4.07,239.2],["C13T15",2.92,-6.81,null,0.73,24.8],["C16",0.07,-6.59,null,0.86,37.3],["C17_18",0.02,-6.9,null,1.13,70.6],["C19",0.13,-6.75,null,1.14,113.2],["C20",0.09,-6.55,null,18.67,192.3],["C21",-0.64,-4.51,null,9.46,65.2],["C22",0.18,-6.52,null,4.92,101.3],["C23",0.16,-6.77,null,2.06,61.3],["C24A",0.31,-7.58,null,1.15,87.0],["C24B",0.16,-6.4,null,3.37,63.0],["C25",0.21,-6.66,null,5.25,167.1],["C26",-0.15,-6.79,null,27.52,109.9],["C27",0.47,-6.61,null,17.23,135.5],["C28",-0.13,-6.18,null,36.03,303.0],["C29",-0.19,-5.68,null,43.72,496.5],["C301",0.52,-7.83,null,0.94,8.0],["C302T309",0.05,-6.04,null,3.86,47.7],["C31T33",0.44,-5.55,null,9.08,124.0],["D",0.06,-0.81,null,0.53,220.8],["E",0.07,-0.34,null,0.1,93.9],["F",0.02,-0.32,null,0.49,441.5],["G",0.0,-0.32,null,34.48,743.2],["H49",0.02,-0.34,null,6.94,140.3],["H50",-0.09,-0.25,null,15.49,56.9],["H51",-0.02,-0.24,null,6.02,38.5],["H52",0.0,-0.32,null,3.85,191.4],["H53",0.01,-0.12,null,0.88,69.1],["I",0.01,-0.27,null,2.55,120.3],["J58T60",-0.02,-0.22,null,2.39,70.0],["J61",-0.01,-0.42,null,1.71,72.6],["J62_63",-0.04,-0.32,null,6.4,224.3],["K",0.0,-0.38,null,4.35,319.4],["L",0.01,-0.36,null,0.8,498.1],["M",-0.02,-0.54,null,12.83,503.4],["N",-0.0,-0.26,null,7.54,345.1],["O",0.01,-0.27,null,0.0,365.4],["P",0.01,-0.28,null,0.88,233.4],["Q",0.01,-0.26,null,0.13,477.5],["R",0.01,-0.59,null,0.43,75.1],["S",0.01,-0.31,null,0.14,117.6],["T",0.01,null,null,0.0,9.0]]},{"id":"red_sea_closed","group":"transport","title":"Rotes Meer vollständig gesperrt","shock":"Suezkanal und Bab el-Mandeb sind für alle Schiffe gesperrt. Alle Seewege, die bisher durch das Rote Meer führen, gehen um Afrika herum; Hamburg-Ningbo wird zum Beispiel rund 29 % länger.","partner":"Routen","title_en":"Red Sea fully closed","shock_en":"The Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb are closed to all ships. All sea routes through the Red Sea go around Africa; Hamburg-Ningbo, for example, gets about 29 % longer.","countries":{"AGO":[0.033,0.029,0.082,0.06,null,0.07,null],"ARE":[-0.613,-1.143,-0.58,-1.64,-10.68,-0.606,null],"ARG":[0.001,-0.003,0.002,0.05,null,0.057,null],"AUS":[-0.03,-0.058,-0.027,-0.24,-2.55,0.035,null],"AUT":[-0.103,-0.195,-0.084,-0.21,-8.24,0.079,null],"BEL":[-0.086,-0.16,-0.071,-0.15,-7.23,0.065,null],"BGD":[-0.14,-0.26,-0.123,-4.31,-6.42,-0.34,null],"BGR":[-0.176,-0.319,-0.161,-0.48,-17.57,0.005,null],"BLR":[-0.067,-0.13,-0.058,0.08,-8.29,0.091,null],"BRA":[0.003,0.001,0.005,0.12,null,0.071,null],"BRN":[-0.078,-0.177,-0.078,-0.29,-2.29,-0.063,null],"CAN":[-0.019,-0.036,-0.016,-0.03,-6.41,0.075,null],"CHE":[-0.098,-0.182,-0.081,-0.49,-5.81,-0.014,null],"CHL":[-0.003,-0.007,-0.001,0.05,null,0.048,null],"CHN":[-0.066,-0.123,-0.064,-1.71,-8.76,-0.076,null],"CIV":[0.002,-0.004,0.004,0.2,null,0.075,null],"CMR":[0.005,0.001,0.011,0.2,null,0.063,null],"COD":[-0.004,-0.015,-0.004,0.03,null,0.03,null],"COL":[-0.011,-0.022,-0.011,-0.03,-8.39,0.067,null],"CRI":[0.002,-0.002,0.004,0.15,-2.04,0.096,null],"CYP":[-0.278,-0.552,-0.276,-0.33,-3.06,-0.116,null],"CZE":[-0.125,-0.236,-0.108,-0.18,-9.62,0.147,null],"DEU":[-0.113,-0.214,-0.102,-0.63,-7.87,0.054,null],"DNK":[-0.077,-0.145,-0.072,-0.24,-2.88,0.024,null],"EGY":[-0.29,-0.494,-0.278,-5.19,-22.34,0.446,null],"ESP":[-0.171,-0.314,-0.146,-0.78,-9.47,0.067,null],"EST":[-0.101,-0.191,-0.092,0.06,-5.03,0.092,null],"FIN":[-0.083,-0.158,-0.075,-0.62,-7.56,-0.011,null],"FRA":[-0.087,-0.163,-0.076,-0.47,-6.95,0.027,null],"GBR":[-0.113,-0.213,-0.099,-0.74,-5.22,0.044,null],"GRC":[-0.217,-0.385,-0.184,-0.79,-6.63,-0.008,null],"HKG":[-0.021,-0.04,-0.019,-0.2,-0.98,0.004,null],"HRV":[-0.122,-0.216,-0.109,-0.16,-5.27,0.083,null],"HUN":[-0.127,-0.239,-0.114,-0.14,-8.99,0.074,null],"IDN":[-0.065,-0.121,-0.059,-1.02,-6.86,-0.109,null],"IND":[-0.253,-0.442,-0.243,-4.64,-10.75,-0.605,null],"IRL":[-0.174,-0.331,-0.157,-0.29,-4.81,-0.13,null],"ISL":[-0.058,-0.119,-0.053,0.08,-3.14,0.098,null],"ISR":[-0.365,-0.625,-0.331,-2.82,-13.86,-0.03,null],"ITA":[-0.191,-0.333,-0.169,-1.79,-16.2,0.021,null],"JOR":[0.015,0.002,0.028,0.58,null,0.184,null],"JPN":[-0.015,-0.034,-0.013,-0.33,-2.6,0.064,null],"KAZ":[-0.153,-0.292,-0.137,-0.61,-8.06,-0.186,null],"KHM":[-0.217,-0.404,-0.202,-0.92,-3.98,-0.434,null],"KOR":[-0.078,-0.147,-0.074,-0.85,-6.91,-0.057,null],"LAO":[-0.012,-0.028,-0.01,0.07,null,-0.053,null],"LTU":[-0.043,-0.082,-0.041,0.22,-6.3,0.185,null],"LUX":[-0.009,-0.015,-0.002,0.04,-1.91,0.058,null],"LVA":[-0.05,-0.092,-0.044,0.03,-6.75,0.062,null],"MAR":[-0.237,-0.434,-0.226,-1.23,-13.24,-0.079,null],"MEX":[0.001,-0.003,0.002,0.22,-4.81,0.129,null],"MLT":[-0.237,-0.423,-0.208,-0.4,-2.63,-0.078,null],"MMR":[-0.088,-0.159,-0.078,-1.2,-8.82,-0.209,null],"MYS":[-0.222,-0.409,-0.201,-1.53,-7.59,-0.345,null],"NGA":[0.003,0.001,0.007,0.18,null,0.067,null],"NLD":[-0.087,-0.161,-0.079,-0.3,-6.31,0.061,null],"NOR":[-0.097,-0.187,-0.083,-0.22,-7.08,0.041,null],"NZL":[-0.01,-0.021,-0.01,0.05,-3.03,0.045,null],"PAK":[-0.148,-0.257,-0.141,-7.2,-13.55,-0.345,null],"PER":[-0.003,-0.007,-0.001,0.04,-3.99,0.069,null],"PHL":[-0.059,-0.111,-0.057,-0.57,-4.28,-0.016,null],"POL":[-0.14,-0.269,-0.116,-0.11,-8.23,0.163,null],"PRT":[-0.08,-0.146,-0.075,-0.14,-7.03,0.14,null],"ROU":[-0.098,-0.172,-0.085,-0.5,-14.89,0.088,null],"RUS":[-0.134,-0.255,-0.118,-1.24,-8.73,0.051,null],"SAU":[0.024,0.018,0.055,0.15,null,0.118,null],"SEN":[-0.121,-0.231,-0.108,-1.56,-6.49,-0.111,null],"SGP":[-0.386,-0.72,-0.372,-0.75,-3.06,-0.316,null],"STP":[-0.025,-0.051,-0.023,0.05,null,0.054,null],"SVK":[-0.399,-0.717,-0.342,-2.21,-20.59,-0.686,null],"SVN":[-0.279,-0.515,-0.27,-0.54,-15.23,-0.043,null],"SWE":[-0.074,-0.14,-0.063,-0.27,-6.41,0.046,null],"THA":[-0.242,-0.449,-0.231,-1.46,-6.73,-0.381,null],"TUN":[-0.383,-0.681,-0.363,-0.9,-19.97,-0.036,null],"TUR":[-0.32,-0.627,-0.303,-2.01,-17.01,0.168,null],"TWN":[-0.123,-0.233,-0.115,-0.75,-7.67,-0.097,null],"UKR":[-0.355,-0.651,-0.332,-2.27,-19.56,-0.117,null],"USA":[-0.015,-0.029,-0.012,-0.33,-5.83,0.076,null],"VNM":[-0.322,-0.607,-0.297,-1.61,-5.68,-0.377,null],"ZAF":[-0.024,-0.053,-0.024,-0.12,-4.77,0.061,null],"ROW":[0.005,0.003,0.009,0.24,null,0.1,null],"EU27":[-0.124,-0.228,-0.11,null,null,null,null]},"sectors_deu":[["A01",0.41,-12.52,null,0.32,77.2],["A02",-0.46,-12.7,null,0.48,7.3],["A03",0.6,-13.6,null,0.0,0.7],["B05",1.4,-15.49,null,0.0,1.1],["B06",-0.64,-13.55,null,0.0,1.1],["B07",-100.0,null,null,0.0,0.0],["B08",0.24,-13.25,null,0.15,9.7],["B09",4.86,-11.6,null,0.01,1.7],["C10T12",0.19,-11.54,null,4.07,239.2],["C13T15",5.82,-13.11,null,0.73,24.8],["C16",0.14,-12.64,null,0.86,37.3],["C17_18",0.04,-13.25,null,1.13,70.6],["C19",0.24,-12.99,null,1.14,113.2],["C20",0.18,-12.67,null,18.67,192.3],["C21",-1.28,-8.87,null,9.46,65.2],["C22",0.35,-12.58,null,4.92,101.3],["C23",0.31,-13.04,null,2.06,61.3],["C24A",0.6,-14.5,null,1.15,87.0],["C24B",0.29,-12.34,null,3.37,63.0],["C25",0.41,-12.87,null,5.25,167.1],["C26",-0.21,-13.12,null,27.52,109.9],["C27",0.95,-12.77,null,17.23,135.5],["C28",-0.25,-11.99,null,36.03,303.0],["C29",-0.38,-11.05,null,43.72,496.5],["C301",1.08,-15.1,null,0.94,8.0],["C302T309",0.09,-11.76,null,3.86,47.7],["C31T33",0.86,-10.8,null,9.08,124.0],["D",0.12,-1.61,null,0.53,220.8],["E",0.13,-0.68,null,0.1,93.9],["F",0.04,-0.64,null,0.49,441.5],["G",0.01,-0.64,null,34.48,743.2],["H49",0.03,-0.68,null,6.94,140.3],["H50",-0.17,-0.5,null,15.49,56.9],["H51",-0.05,-0.48,null,6.02,38.5],["H52",0.01,-0.64,null,3.85,191.4],["H53",0.02,-0.24,null,0.88,69.1],["I",0.01,-0.54,null,2.55,120.3],["J58T60",-0.04,-0.44,null,2.39,70.0],["J61",-0.02,-0.82,null,1.71,72.6],["J62_63",-0.08,-0.62,null,6.4,224.3],["K",0.01,-0.74,null,4.35,319.4],["L",0.03,-0.71,null,0.8,498.1],["M",-0.04,-1.1,null,12.83,503.4],["N",-0.01,-0.52,null,7.54,345.1],["O",0.03,-0.54,null,0.0,365.4],["P",0.02,-0.57,null,0.88,233.4],["Q",0.02,-0.52,null,0.13,477.5],["R",0.01,-1.19,null,0.43,75.1],["S",0.03,-0.62,null,0.14,117.6],["T",0.02,null,null,0.0,9.0]]},{"id":"panama_closed","group":"transport","title":"Panamakanal gesperrt","shock":"Der Panamakanal ist gesperrt, etwa durch anhaltende Dürre. Seewege zwischen der Ostküste Amerikas und Ostasien sowie zwischen Europa und der Westküste Südamerikas werden länger.","partner":"Routen","title_en":"Panama Canal closed","shock_en":"The Panama Canal is closed, for example by a lasting drought. Sea routes between the east coast of the Americas and East Asia, and between Europe and the west coast of South America, get longer.","countries":{"AGO":[0.008,0.008,0.015,0.0,-2.54,0.021,null],"ARE":[0.024,0.022,0.046,0.05,-1.03,0.029,null],"ARG":[0.006,0.004,0.011,0.14,null,0.044,null],"AUS":[-0.02,-0.04,-0.019,-0.29,-5.53,-0.022,null],"AUT":[0.004,0.004,0.008,0.06,-4.76,0.04,null],"BEL":[-0.0,-0.001,-0.0,0.04,-4.81,0.033,null],"BGD":[0.01,0.009,0.019,0.35,null,0.049,null],"BGR":[0.003,0.001,0.006,0.05,-5.39,0.034,null],"BLR":[0.002,0.002,0.004,0.01,-2.16,0.02,null],"BRA":[0.007,0.006,0.014,0.17,null,0.049,null],"BRN":[0.029,0.02,0.065,0.06,-0.83,0.03,null],"CAN":[-0.038,-0.074,-0.035,-0.21,-4.96,0.039,null],"CHE":[0.005,0.005,0.011,0.04,-3.78,0.033,null],"CHL":[-0.289,-0.664,-0.221,-2.97,-13.34,-0.383,null],"CHN":[-0.023,-0.045,-0.022,-0.66,-4.32,-0.083,null],"CIV":[0.002,0.002,0.004,0.06,-7.77,0.031,null],"CMR":[0.003,0.002,0.005,0.05,-3.21,0.025,null],"COD":[-0.011,-0.02,-0.007,-0.06,-2.37,-0.018,null],"COL":[-0.245,-0.442,-0.231,-3.29,-19.24,-0.099,null],"CRI":[-0.224,-0.401,-0.206,-1.18,-9.82,-0.155,null],"CYP":[-0.001,-0.003,-0.0,0.01,-2.43,0.019,null],"CZE":[0.006,0.006,0.013,0.07,-5.39,0.038,null],"DEU":[0.004,0.003,0.007,0.07,-3.95,0.036,null],"DNK":[0.003,0.002,0.005,0.01,-2.57,0.027,null],"EGY":[0.001,0.0,0.002,0.09,-4.53,0.031,null],"ESP":[0.002,0.001,0.004,0.04,-4.57,0.036,null],"EST":[0.004,0.004,0.009,0.05,-4.43,0.038,null],"FIN":[0.001,0.001,0.002,0.05,-4.64,0.029,null],"FRA":[-0.0,-0.002,-0.0,0.04,-4.0,0.032,null],"GBR":[-0.0,-0.003,-0.0,0.05,-2.96,0.029,null],"GRC":[-0.0,-0.002,-0.0,0.04,-4.18,0.028,null],"HKG":[0.001,0.001,0.003,0.02,0.17,-0.001,null],"HRV":[-0.003,-0.006,-0.002,0.03,-2.97,0.029,null],"HUN":[0.006,0.005,0.012,0.1,-4.66,0.059,null],"IDN":[0.004,0.003,0.009,0.09,1.5,0.036,null],"IND":[0.005,0.004,0.01,0.16,0.04,0.049,null],"IRL":[0.025,0.021,0.051,0.02,-2.99,0.027,null],"ISL":[0.001,0.001,0.005,0.09,-1.37,0.04,null],"ISR":[0.005,0.004,0.009,0.07,-2.86,0.037,null],"ITA":[0.003,0.002,0.006,0.09,-4.33,0.042,null],"JOR":[0.005,0.004,0.01,0.15,-3.59,0.048,null],"JPN":[-0.064,-0.12,-0.061,-1.35,-8.4,-0.174,null],"KAZ":[0.006,0.004,0.013,0.01,0.32,0.027,null],"KHM":[0.035,0.03,0.07,0.2,1.42,0.097,null],"KOR":[-0.091,-0.174,-0.091,-1.07,-6.93,-0.239,null],"LAO":[0.005,0.004,0.011,0.01,null,0.023,null],"LTU":[0.0,-0.0,0.001,0.03,-5.68,0.029,null],"LUX":[0.014,0.013,0.028,0.02,-2.49,0.025,null],"LVA":[0.0,-0.001,0.0,0.04,-3.4,0.031,null],"MAR":[0.0,-0.002,0.001,0.05,-6.83,0.036,null],"MEX":[-0.218,-0.408,-0.205,-1.36,-13.88,-0.01,null],"MLT":[-0.002,-0.004,-0.001,-0.02,-3.69,-0.003,null],"MMR":[0.005,0.004,0.01,0.07,null,0.017,null],"MYS":[0.016,0.015,0.032,0.18,3.16,0.062,null],"NGA":[0.003,0.003,0.006,0.09,-1.31,0.028,null],"NLD":[0.002,0.001,0.004,0.01,-4.71,0.025,null],"NOR":[0.021,0.018,0.043,0.03,-5.31,0.037,null],"NZL":[-0.058,-0.109,-0.055,-0.95,-4.75,-0.124,null],"PAK":[0.003,0.002,0.006,0.27,-3.96,0.033,null],"PER":[-0.442,-0.941,-0.359,-6.69,-19.21,-0.659,null],"PHL":[-0.005,-0.012,-0.004,-0.07,-0.07,0.005,null],"POL":[0.007,0.006,0.015,0.08,-5.39,0.042,null],"PRT":[0.001,-0.0,0.002,0.05,-4.45,0.037,null],"ROU":[-0.0,-0.002,-0.0,0.05,-3.57,0.033,null],"RUS":[0.005,0.005,0.009,0.03,-6.76,0.022,null],"SAU":[0.013,0.011,0.026,0.05,-3.69,0.021,null],"SEN":[-0.003,-0.006,-0.003,0.07,-3.35,0.02,null],"SGP":[0.015,0.014,0.028,0.03,1.09,0.022,null],"STP":[-0.005,-0.01,-0.005,0.03,-2.76,0.021,null],"SVK":[0.007,0.006,0.015,0.12,-4.49,0.062,null],"SVN":[0.007,0.005,0.013,0.06,-3.89,0.041,null],"SWE":[0.002,0.002,0.005,0.04,-4.88,0.031,null],"THA":[0.017,0.014,0.032,0.22,3.57,0.084,null],"TUN":[0.002,0.001,0.005,0.07,-3.39,0.039,null],"TUR":[0.003,0.001,0.006,0.07,-5.24,0.033,null],"TWN":[-0.033,-0.067,-0.032,-0.2,-1.52,-0.062,null],"UKR":[-0.001,-0.003,-0.001,0.05,-5.19,0.028,null],"USA":[-0.051,-0.097,-0.046,-1.21,-5.88,0.047,null],"VNM":[0.048,0.044,0.093,0.33,2.48,0.087,null],"ZAF":[0.003,0.001,0.008,0.04,null,0.025,null],"ROW":[0.003,0.002,0.006,0.09,null,0.031,null],"EU27":[0.003,0.003,0.006,null,null,null,null]},"sectors_deu":[["A01",0.17,-11.03,null,0.01,77.2],["A02",-0.03,-20.73,null,0.0,7.3],["A03",0.1,-11.88,null,0.0,0.7],["B05",-0.18,-3.45,null,0.0,1.1],["B06",0.07,-3.97,null,0.0,1.1],["B07",-100.0,null,null,0.0,0.0],["B08",0.07,-10.72,null,0.0,9.7],["B09",0.04,-14.4,null,0.0,1.7],["C10T12",0.04,-7.95,null,0.36,239.2],["C13T15",0.03,-7.45,null,0.04,24.8],["C16",0.03,-12.91,null,0.04,37.3],["C17_18",0.02,-10.51,null,0.08,70.6],["C19",0.02,0.11,null,0.04,113.2],["C20",-0.01,-4.9,null,0.57,192.3],["C21",-0.01,-5.18,null,0.28,65.2],["C22",0.08,-7.71,null,0.19,101.3],["C23",0.01,-9.93,null,0.04,61.3],["C24A",0.07,-10.76,null,0.03,87.0],["C24B",0.19,-12.39,null,0.02,63.0],["C25",0.06,-7.38,null,0.18,167.1],["C26",0.05,-7.87,null,0.27,109.9],["C27",0.22,-7.12,null,0.34,135.5],["C28",0.13,-3.4,null,1.2,303.0],["C29",0.13,-5.22,null,0.82,496.5],["C301",-0.25,-3.33,null,0.06,8.0],["C302T309",0.14,-2.57,null,0.07,47.7],["C31T33",0.05,-9.34,null,0.19,124.0],["D",0.04,-2.57,null,0.01,220.8],["E",0.05,-2.02,null,0.0,93.9],["F",0.03,-1.24,null,0.02,441.5],["G",0.01,-1.57,null,0.94,743.2],["H49",0.01,-0.8,null,0.33,140.3],["H50",-0.07,-0.41,null,0.4,56.9],["H51",-0.01,-0.44,null,0.35,38.5],["H52",0.01,-1.54,null,0.08,191.4],["H53",0.02,-1.15,null,0.0,69.1],["I",0.02,-1.38,null,0.05,120.3],["J58T60",0.0,-1.23,null,0.04,70.0],["J61",0.02,-1.66,null,0.03,72.6],["J62_63",-0.0,-1.13,null,0.28,224.3],["K",0.01,-1.87,null,0.34,319.4],["L",0.03,-1.92,null,0.02,498.1],["M",-0.03,-4.04,null,0.13,503.4],["N",-0.0,-1.9,null,0.29,345.1],["O",0.03,null,null,0.0,365.4],["P",0.03,-1.99,null,0.0,233.4],["Q",0.03,-1.6,null,0.0,477.5],["R",0.01,-3.58,null,0.01,75.1],["S",0.03,-1.63,null,0.0,117.6],["T",0.03,null,null,0.0,9.0]]}],"checks":[{"name":"Nachrechnung eines Lehrbuchbeispiels","result":"bestanden","text":"Das NAFTA-Beispiel aus Yotov, Piermartini, Monteiro und Larch (2016) wird reproduziert: gleicher RTA-Koeffizient (0,557), Exporteffekte bis auf höchstens 0,75 Prozentpunkte."},{"name":"Modellmechanik","result":"bestanden","text":"Ohne Schock gibt das Modell die Ausgangslage exakt wieder; mit einem Sektor ohne Vorleistungen fällt es mit dem Ein-Sektor-Zollmodell zusammen; die Wohlfahrtsformel von Arkolakis, Costinot und Rodríguez-Clare (2012) gilt im Ein-Sektor-Fall."},{"name":"US-Importe aus China","result":"plausibel","text":"Modell: -23 % bei den aktuellen Zöllen. Beobachtet 2025: rund -30 % (US Census, laut PIIE und Presseberichten). Das Modell beschreibt die langfristige Anpassung, 2025 galten wechselnde Zölle."},{"name":"Ex-post: US-Importe nach Partnerland","result":"teilweise","text":"Beobachtete US-Importe August 2025 bis Juli 2026 gegenüber 2024 (IMF IMTS), relativ zum Gesamtimport: Korrelation mit dem Modell 0,43 über 67 Partner, ohne Südostasien, Schweiz und Irland 0,73. Das Modell trifft den Einbruch bei China; es verfehlt die Umlenkung über Vietnam, Thailand und Malaysia, die Goldströme der Schweiz und den Pharma-Vorzieheffekt Irlands. Steigung 0,42: kurzfristig reagiert der Handel schwächer als im langfristigen Modell."},{"name":"US-Zolleinnahmen","result":"plausibel","text":"Modell: 192 bis 256 Mrd. USD im Jahr, je nach Elastizität (einschließlich der Zölle von vor 2025). Beobachtet: 195 Mrd. USD im Haushaltsjahr 2025 (CRFB nach Monthly Treasury Statement), als die Zölle erst teilweise galten."},{"name":"Wohlfahrt der USA","result":"Abweichung","text":"Ignatenko, Lashkaripour, Macedoni und Simonovska (2025, JIE) finden ohne Vergeltung einen kleinen Gewinn der USA. Hier entsteht ein Gewinn nur bei niedrigen Elastizitäten; im zentralen Fall verlieren die USA 0,1 bis 0,5 %."},{"name":"EU-Handelskosten seit 2000","result":"bestanden","text":"Eigene Schätzung: Die Handelskosten im EU-Binnenhandel mit Industriewaren sinken 2000 bis 2019 um 11,6 Punkte, die von Drittstaaten in die EU ebenfalls. Head und Mayer (2021, Abbildung 1) zeigen für 2000 bis 2018 einen ähnlichen Rückgang und ebenfalls keine Abschottung nach außen."},{"name":"Transportkosten: Reaktion auf längere Seewege","result":"bestanden","text":"Im Modell sinkt der Warenhandel auf umgeleiteten Routen mit einer Elastizität von 0,43 bezogen auf die Seeentfernung. Feyrer (2021, Journal of Development Economics) findet bei der Schließung des Suezkanals 1967 bis 1975 etwa 0,5. Zeitkosten nach Hummels und Schaur (2013) hätten 2,5 ergeben und wurden deshalb nicht verwendet."},{"name":"Anstieg der EU-Exporte in die USA im September-Szenario","result":"erklärt","text":"Die EU-Exporte in die USA steigen um 1,4 %, obwohl die deutschen fallen. Ursache ist Handelsumlenkung: Fast zollfreie EU-Waren (Pharma, Mineralöl, Flugzeuge) und Dienstleistungen ersetzen hoch verzollte Importe aus China und Indien."}],"us_tariff_file":"usa_tariffs_20260907.zip","us_tariff_latest_date":"20260822"}